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Probability Playground overview

Probability Playground lets you answer back-of-the-envelope questions by writing a simple model and instantly seeing the output distribution.

What it does​

You write a model in a mini-language — a few lines declaring random variables and derived calculations — and the playground runs 1,000 simulation iterations, then shows a histogram of the output.

No account required. Authenticated users can save and reload models.

Example use cases​

  • TAM/SAM/SOM estimate: tam ~ uniform(1e9, 5e9); sam_fraction ~ uniform(0.01, 0.05); sam = tam * sam_fraction;
  • Project NPV: model revenue and cost as distributions, compute NPV as a derived variable
  • Probability of hitting a target: read off Pr(x < X) from the histogram

Layout​

The page has two panes:

Editor (left):

  • Text area for your model
  • Run button
  • Save button (authenticated users)
  • Error messages below the editor

Visualization (right):

  • Histogram of the last declared variable (or any variable you select)
  • Draggable Pr(x < X) line
  • Summary statistics

Next steps​